NBAHOUSE

Public record

Model track record

Every model pick since 20 Oct 2026, graded against the official box score. Wins and losses, nothing removed. Pushes and players who did not play are not counted.

103–71
Record
59.2%
Win rate · 52.4% breaks even
+22.6u
Units at −110
+13.0%
ROI

Units over time

1 unit per pick at −110
0 Tue 20 Oct Wed 21 Oct

By confidence

What the tiers mean
Strong
26–10
72.2%
+13.6u
Solid
48–19
71.6%
+24.6u
Lean
29–42
40.8%
−15.6u

By stat and side

Points
21–8
72.4%
+11.1u
Rebounds
38–42
47.5%
−7.5u
Assists
44–21
67.7%
+19.0u
Over
8–4
66.7%
+3.3u
Under
95–67
58.6%
+19.4u

Is the confidence honest?

174 graded picks
40% 40% 50% 50% 60% 60% 70% 70% 80% 80% 90% 90% breaks even at −110 Under 50%: 8–11, won 42.1% 55–60%: 11–4, won 73.3% 65–70%: 14–13, won 51.9% 70–75%: 16–7, won 69.6% 75–80%: 14–2, won 87.5% 80% or more: 32–17, won 65.3% Chance the model gave the pick

The model is overconfident: its picks win less often than the chance it gives them (by 8.4 points on average).

Model saysPicksWon
Under 50%1942.1%
55–60%1573.3%
65–70%2751.9%
70–75%2369.6%
75–80%1687.5%
80% or more4965.3%

The chance comes from how far the projection sits from the line, against how much that stat usually moves. Dots on the dashed diagonal mean the model's confidence is honest; bigger dots have more picks.

By month

MonthWLPWin %Units
October 2026103710 59.2%+22.6

Latest graded picks

DatePlayerPickConfidenceFinalResult
Wed 21 Oct Yves Missi Over 7.5 rebounds Lean 14 Win
Wed 21 Oct Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 rebounds Lean 8 Win
Wed 21 Oct Stephen Curry Under 3.5 rebounds Solid 2 Win
Wed 21 Oct Josh Giddey Under 13.5 points Solid 2 Win
Wed 21 Oct Dillon Brooks Under 16.5 points Lean 10 Win
Wed 21 Oct Max Christie Under 1.5 assists Lean 2 Loss
Wed 21 Oct RJ Barrett Over 3.5 assists Lean 3 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Toumani Camara Under 10.5 points Lean 18 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Brandon Miller Under 5.5 rebounds Strong 3 Win
Wed 21 Oct Michael Porter Jr. Under 6.5 rebounds Solid 7 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Andrew Wiggins Under 4.5 rebounds Solid 2 Win
Wed 21 Oct Keegan Murray Under 5.5 rebounds Strong 4 Win
Wed 21 Oct Bam Adebayo Under 9.5 rebounds Solid 7 Win
Wed 21 Oct Norman Powell Under 2.5 rebounds Lean 5 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Ty Jerome Under 6.5 assists Lean 6 Win
Wed 21 Oct Alexandre Sarr Under 6.5 rebounds Lean 9 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 rebounds Lean 2 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Julius Randle Under 5.5 assists Strong 7 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Zach Edey Under 11.5 points Lean 6 Win
Wed 21 Oct Cameron Boozer Under 3.5 assists Lean 5 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Trae Young Under 10.5 assists Lean 13 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Draymond Green Over 5.5 rebounds Solid 4 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Matas Buzelis Under 5.5 rebounds Lean 6 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Ryan Rollins Under 5.5 assists Solid 3 Win
Wed 21 Oct P.J. Washington Jr. Under 5.5 rebounds Lean 4 Win
Wed 21 Oct Trey Murphy III Under 5.5 rebounds Solid 4 Win
Wed 21 Oct Walker Kessler Under 11.5 points Solid 26 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Day'Ron Sharpe Under 2.5 assists Lean 3 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Naz Reid Under 6.5 rebounds Lean 11 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Dillon Brooks Under 3.5 rebounds Lean 4 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Kelly Oubre Jr. Under 4.5 rebounds Solid 2 Win
Wed 21 Oct Jaylen Wells Under 2.5 rebounds Lean 5 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Desmond Bane Under 3.5 rebounds Lean 5 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Andrew Wiggins Under 1.5 assists Lean 1 Win
Wed 21 Oct Jaylen Wells Under 0.5 assists Strong 0 Win
Wed 21 Oct Egor Demin Under 3.5 rebounds Solid 4 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Alperen Sengun Under 9.5 rebounds Lean 10 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Damian Lillard Under 3.5 rebounds Solid 3 Win
Wed 21 Oct Jaime Jaquez Jr. Under 3.5 assists Lean 2 Win
Wed 21 Oct Andrew Nembhard Over 6.5 assists Lean 9 Win
Wed 21 Oct Zach LaVine Under 3.5 rebounds Solid 4 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Trey Murphy III Under 3.5 assists Solid 1 Win
Wed 21 Oct Immanuel Quickley Under 3.5 rebounds Lean 4 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Max Christie Under 2.5 rebounds Lean 3 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Daniel Gafford Under 1.5 assists Solid 1 Win
Wed 21 Oct Zion Williamson Under 5.5 rebounds Solid 3 Win
Wed 21 Oct Ivica Zubac Under 11.5 rebounds Solid 15 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Josh Giddey Under 8.5 assists Solid 6 Win
Wed 21 Oct Onyeka Okongwu Under 7.5 rebounds Strong 5 Win
Wed 21 Oct Khaman Maluach Under 8.5 rebounds Lean 6 Win
Wed 21 Oct Deni Avdija Under 6.5 rebounds Solid 10 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Rui Hachimura Under 5.5 rebounds Solid 8 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Alexandre Sarr Under 1.5 assists Lean 2 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Kevin Durant Under 5.5 rebounds Solid 6 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Keegan Murray Under 1.5 assists Strong 0 Win
Wed 21 Oct Derrick Jones Jr. Under 1.5 assists Strong 5 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Derrick Jones Jr. Under 3.5 rebounds Lean 6 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Jalen Johnson Under 9.5 rebounds Lean 14 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Darius Acuff Jr. Under 2.5 rebounds Lean 3 Loss
Wed 21 Oct Isaiah Jackson Under 1.5 assists Lean 0 Win